Another week, another round of favorable housing news. So let’s stop dithering and call this race.
Housing has won. The real estate bears have lost.
Of course, whether you’re a skeptic who hates this Federal Reserve-driven recovery or simply one of those cautious types who don’t like to act hastily, it’s easy to scoff at this notion. After all, there’s no universal indicator indicating “recovery” -- and no balloons that drop if and when we pass the threshold.
But while there’s no single item that states definitively whether housing is back, there are a host of data points that, collectively, tell a compelling story. Here’s a sampling:
Prices
S&P/Case-Shiller released its Home Price Indices for the first quarter of 2013 this week, and the numbers blew the doors off -- again. This was the 10th consecutive month with a year-over-year gain, with the 10-city metro index, the 20-city metro index and even the nationwide index all tacking on double digit gains. It was also the largest year-over-year increase for the for the Composite 20 index of 20 since 2006 with metro areas Charlotte, Los Angeles, Portland, Seattle and Tampa recorded their largest month-over-month gains in over seven years.
Prices, part two
Before the big report this week, last week the Federal Housing Financing Authority posted its first quarter housing price index report, which showed its seventh consecutive quarterly increase. Compared with the first quarter of 2012, house prices were up 6.7%. Broken out by state, prices were up in 41 states and the District of Columbia -- pretty darn close to the entire nation.
Starts and permits
TICKERS IN THIS ARTICLE
Housing construction as measured by the Census Bureau is still booming, though admittedly in April we saw a month-over-month cooling in starts that was significant. But despite this hiccup, the rate remains up 13% year-over-year and included permitting that hit the highest levels in five years. This is hardly a bubble popping.
Builder confidence
A further indicator of forward-looking strength: The National Association of Homebuilders reported that builder confidence improved again across the board in April. Measures of current sales conditions, sales expectations and prospective buyer traffic all moved higher. Of specific interest was that NAHB’s measure of confidence in future sales hit the highest level since February 2007. Considering homebuilder stocks like Toll Brothers (TOL -0.70%, news) and PulteGroup (PHM -2.35%, news) have already exploded in the last year, growing optimism after the run -- instead of doubt -- is noteworthy.
Housing stocks
While I’m talking tickers, how about less-obvious housing plays than builders? Housewares retailer Williams-Sonoma (WSM -0.94%, news), paint maker Sherwin-Williams (SHW -1.26%, news) and of course, home-improvement retailer Home Depot (HD -0.98%, news) are all up over 50% in the last 12 months. Appliance manufacturer Whirlpool (WHR -0.91%, news) is up over 100% in the same period, as is Lumber Liquidators (LL -0.24%, news). There’s a lot of profits to go around, and a lot of optimism
