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Michelle Cannon

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Oil’s Decline Benefits the Economy More Than It Hurts

January 19th, 2015


The steep decline in the price of oil has temporarily thrown a curveball into the financial markets. Lower oil prices in December led to lower gasoline and energy prices. Oil declined even further in January, which means this deflationary pressure isn’t finished working its way through the economy. Will this trend dampen the positive outlook for housing and the economy in 2015? On the contrary, lower energy prices should be a net positive for the economy and housing in most markets in the country.

Lower energy prices and global economic weakness have given us one more shot at historically low interest rates. It’s not clear yet if these short-term trends will keep interest rates this low through the start of the spring selling season, but the average 30-year fixed conforming mortgage was at 3.66% this week and the 15-year fixed conforming fell beneath 3%. As a result, mortgage applications surged.

Consumers continued to be buoyed by the cheaper prices they are paying at the pump. The initial reading from the University of Michigan released today showed that consumer sentiment in January rose almost 5% over December and was up 21% from last January. Consumers haven’t been this happy according to that measure of sentiment since January 2004.

Effect on U.S. oil producers and their workers

The primary negative from lower oil prices is the impact it will have on the areas of the country that have benefited from significant growth in the extraction and production of oil in recent years. Those were often the areas that had the strongest economies from 2011 to 2013, and now they are most at risk to see some economic weakness from oil companies cutting back on investment and even potentially laying off employees.

According to analysis of employment data published by the National Association of REALTORS® this week, just over 197,000 people are employed in oil and gas extraction in the U.S., or 0.14% of total employment. Even in Texas, the percentage of the workforce involved in gas and oil extraction is less than 1%.

A net gain for consumers

The energy sector may suffer, but other businesses and the consumer will gain. Petroleum is an ingredient in many other products, like plastics. Energy is required for every type of business. Transportation cost is a core part of the final goods we purchase. And transportation itself is a key part of our day-to-day lives.

Even oil-producing Texas, on the whole, will benefit from a lower price of oil. In Texas, 9.7 million workers drive themselves alone to and from work each day, spending almost an hour total on average in their cars and trucks, according to current estimates from Nielsen Demographics.

A recent survey by The Wall Street Journal showed that economists are now even more upbeat about the prospects for the U.S. economy in 2015 as a result of the lower oil prices.

At least based on the retail sales data from December, not all of the savings from lower gas prices are being spent on other goods. I view that as a potential positive as well—it could be that many households are saving up their weekly gasoline windfalls to apply to a down payment on a new home.

Jonathan Smoke is chief economist at realtor.com.


Disclaimer : The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Houston Association of REALTORS®

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