Home prices are on the fall this year again. Economist estimate that prices can fall another 15%, 20% or 25%. There will lots of great buys out there for investors and first time home-buyers. The only negative thing that I see if first time home-buyers wait is that interest rates are on the rise.
That's a stunning enough pronouncement to make house hunters consider putting purchases on hold. And that may not be a dumb move: If prices are near a double dip -- meaning they fell after the bust, rose a bit during recovery and are now heading back down -- there may be better deals ahead.
Just to get that back to a normal ratio -- which we last saw in 1998 -- home prices would have to drop another 15%, according to Anthony Sanders, a director of Real Estate Entrepreneurship at George Mason University.
Naturally, many disagree with these assessments. Karl Case, who co-founded the home price index with doom-sayer Shiller, believes that the market will "bounce along the bottom all year." If that's the case, buyers who take the plunge now shouldn't expect big profits if they sell in the next few years, but they shouldn't have to take a major hit either.
Besides, a home purchase is more than a potential investment, especially for families planning to stay put for a while. The big plus for them is the pleasure of living in their own homes.
"People should base their decision on affordability, lifestyle choices and home preferences, not on investment," said Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors' chief economist.
Some stable areas, such as Texas and the Midwest, will probably not experience price plunges at all, but other markets, such as Seattle, Portland and inland California, could still fall substantially, according to Baker
Even for the markets most likely to rebound, projected returns are minimal. Fiserv, which provides financial information and analysis, projects that the best performing market over the next two years will be Tacoma, Wash. -- and it will only record a price increase of 12%. That means those in average markets can only hope for single-digit returns.
Despite the gloom, many Americans remain confident about home buying. A survey released Monday by Fannie Mae revealed that 65% of people believe it's a good time to purchase, with 78% expecting prices will rise or remain the same over the next 12 months.
And buyers may take heart from some positive recent indicators, such as an up tick in the sales of existing homes in January; a drop in vacant rental homes; and more investors snapping up properties.
There's also been an upswing in the number of high-end homes -- those costing more than $750,000 -- being sold, according to Yun. The wealthy buyers of these properties have lots of choices of where to place their money and many are investing in real estate.