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MAY
9
Economist predicts growth to continue in Houston
Date: Tuesday, May 8, 2012, 3:01pm CDT - Last Modified: Tuesday, May 8, 2012, 4:31pm CDT
 
Ted Jones, chief economist for Stewart Title Guaranty Co., who addressed the annual real estate and economic forepresented by the University of Houston Hobby Center for Public Policy.

Ted Jones, chief economist for Stewart Title Guaranty Co., who addressed the annual real estate and economic forepresented by the University of Houston Hobby Center for Public Policy.

Houston can expect continued job growth for the next two years, according to Ted Jones, chief economist for Stewart Title Guaranty Co. 

Jones had plenty of good news to share Tuesday at the annual real estate and economic forepresented by the University of Houston Hobby Center for Public Policy's Institute for Regional Forecasting held at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in downtown Houston.

The greater Houston area will add 70,400 jobs in 2012, 72,400 jobs in 2013 and 74,400 jobs in 2014, Jones predicted. Residential and commercial real estate sectors are poised for growth as a result.

Existing home sales will increase by 7.5 percent this year and 8.1 percent in 2013, Jones said. Houston experienced its second best March for home sales in the last five years, he added.

The median existing home price is expected to increase 2.9 percent in 2012 and 2.7 percent next year, he said. Houston currently has the highest home prices it has ever had. Houston cannot have 3.31 percent job growth, increases in multifamily rental rates and not have home prices rise in the next 12 to 24 months, Jones said.

The foreclosure problem also is improving. For every two existing home listings in Houston, there is one home destined for foreclosure that makes up a set of shadow inventory, he said. That is much improved from 2007, when there was one existing home listing for every four to five foreclosures.

Other highlights from the economic foreinclude:

• Retail sales are foreto rise 6.6 percent this year and 7 percent the next.

• Office vacancy rates are expected to hit 13 percent in 2012 and drop to 12.6 next year.

• Apartment vacancy rates are projected at 8 percent this year and 7.8 percent next year.

• Retail vacancy is foreto rise from 9.8 percent this year to 10.3 percent in 2013 because some new retail space is finally coming online, Jones said.

The amount of office and industrial construction in Houston is not enough to support demand, therefore, tenants can expect to see rent increases.

And expect more construction projects to pop out of the ground, Jones said.

“Construction workers are going to be hard to come by,” he said.

MAY
3

Housing gains amid still tough mortgage market

Nancy Sarnof, Houston Chronicle Copyright 2012 Houston Chronicle. 
Published 07:41 p.m., Wednesday, May 2, 2012

New jobs and better access to credit for homebuyers helped lift Houston's housing market during the first quarter.

Areawide, homes sales jumped 9 percent over the same period last year, to 12,936, according to a quarterly housing report from the Texas Association of Realtors. The median price reached $150,900, an increase of 4 percent.

Economist Jim Gaines suspects part of the improvement is lenders' trying to make it a little easier for those who want to own homes.

"I don't want to imply it's getting easy, but I am being told by Realtors I'm talking to around the state that they are sensing the lenders are easing up just a bit," said Gaines of the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, which analyzes the statewide reports.

Some attribute the stronger housing to consumers' being better prepared for more scrutiny from lenders.

"The consumer is now adjusting to fact that you have to be very credit-worthy today to get financing," said David Zugheri, executive vice president and co-founder Envoy Mortgage.

Underwriting guidelines for conventional mortgages - those that meet the purchase criteria of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - have not eased, said Ed Kampf, branch partner at Hancock Mortgage Partners in Houston.

"The lenders are still underwriting defensively," Kampf said.

Those who don't have strong enough credit to qualify for a mortgage are seeking help from financial-repair companies and returning to the market when their positions improve.

The strengthening economy also is helping some who have been shut out of the mortgage market.

In some cases, self-employed borrowers whose businesses suffered during the recession are seeing their incomes rise again, allowing them to qualify for home loans.

"I'm more optimistic about what we're seeing," said Kevin Keith, a mortgage-banking officer for BBVA Compass.

According to the housing report, consumers' overall attitudes toward real estate are improving.

"Buyers and sellers have higher expectations for the market, so they're beginning to take action and we're starting to see the impacts," Gaines said.

There are more tangible signs.

The inventory of homes for sale fell during the first quarter, dipping to 6 months compared with 7.6 months a year earlier, a possible indication of coming price increases. Months inventory is the time it would take to sell all the homes on the market based on the previous year of sales activity. The Real Estate Center cites 6.5 months of inventory as a balanced market.

Inventory has been falling for about six months due in part to homeowners' waiting for prices to improve before putting their homes on the market, Gaines said. The slower processing of foreclosures and fewer distressed properties also may reduce the number of listings.

APR
5
 

Harris leads nation's other counties in growth

Population gains put Houston area in the Top 5
Updated 12:00 a.m., Thursday, April 5, 2012  

 

     

     

    The Houston metro area officially topped 6 million people last summer, surpassing Philadelphia to become the nation's fifth-largest metropolitan area.

    The growth is part of a continued Texas juggernaut led by Harris County, which added more people than any county in the nation between April 1, 2010, and July 2011, according to census estimates released on Thursday.

    The estimates are an update to the official 2010 Census. One thing is clear: Texas remains a powerful draw.

    "People are voting with their feet," said Jeff Moseley, president and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership. "It's a huge validation."

    Four of the 10 counties posting the largest numeric gains between 2010 and 2011 were in Texas: Harris, Dallas, Bexar and Tarrant.

    Texas' population grew from 25.1 million in 2010 to an estimated 25.7 million in mid-2011.

    Gov. Rick Perry's office claimed at least some of the credit.

    "Governor Perry has worked hard to make Texas the best state in the nation to live, work and raise a family by creating an economic environment that encourages job creation and innovation," said spokeswoman Steffany Duke. "The governor's commitment to low taxes, predictable regulations, a fair legal system and developing a skilled workforce have made Texas the nation's leading job-creating state."

    Houston tally unofficial

    Only the Dallas- Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area added more people than the Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown metro area - 154,774 people compared with 139,699.

    Still, that was enough to push the area's population to 6.08 million, behind only New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Dallas-Fort Worth.

    Houston Mayor Annise Parker said the census numbers confirm what she had seen elsewhere in terms of employment growth.

    "Houston is the job capital of the nation. Professional opportunities and our low cost of living are luring people here from other cities," she said by email. "Our new residents are quickly finding out what the rest of us already knew, Houston is the best city in America in which to live, work and raise a family."

    Thursday's population estimates didn't include figures for the city of Houston. The city, fourth-largest in the U.S., has filed a challenge to its official count in the 2010 Census, saying the 2,099,451 figure was more than 100,000 below earlier estimates. That challenge is still under review, and census officials have asked for additional maps and documentation, Margaret Wallace, an assistant director in the city planning department, said Wednesday.

    'It is a good thing'

    Much of the population growth since 2010, both in Texas and elsewhere in the nation - including several cities in North Dakota - can be explained by a burst of oil and gas exploration, said Steve Murdock, director of Rice University's Hobby Center for the Study of Texas.

    He said population growth can be a "double-edged sword," bringing prosperity but also demands for costly services including education and transportation.

    Still, few people were lamenting the news.

    "Most people that I know think it is a good thing," Harris County Judge Ed Emmett said of the rapid growth. "Clearly we have an economy that's growing.

    "I would rather be in a county that has the problem of meeting the needs of growth than the problem of meeting the needs of stagnation."

    Notions of jurisdiction

    Harris County gained more than 88,000 residents between 2010 and mid-2011, growing to 4.18 million, and Emmett noted that if unincorporated Harris County were itself a city, it would be the fifth largest city in the United States.

    The Houston metropolitan area's explosive growth offers evidence of something the county judge often talks about - old notions of jurisdiction don't make as much sense as they once did.

    "Most things don't stop at a county line," Emmett said. "Traffic doesn't stop at a county line. Pollution doesn't stop at a county line."

    Lloyd Potter, director of the Texas State Data Center, said the state's growth rate between 2010 and 2011 puts it on a pace to repeat the 21 percent growth between 2000 and 2010.

    And although growth can bring problems, he agreed with Emmett that it's better than the opposite.

    "Growth is certainly an indicator of economic growth," Potter declared. "Most people have a hard time looking at economic growth and thinking that's bad."

    MAR
    27

    Everyone wants to live in Houston: No. 1 city in the country for relocation

    03.27.12 11:54 am

    And the population just keeps on growing: Houston is ranked the No. 1 destination for relocation in the United States for the third year in a row, according to a report by U-Haul International Inc

    Is it our mild winters? Our proximity to the coast? Our world-renowned arts

    Or just the job market, which is growing faster than any other metropolitan area. More than 94,700 jobs were added in Houston alone between January 2011 and January 2012. 

    U-Haul's ranking, based upon data from more than 1.6 million rental truck transactions in 2011, puts Houston ahead of Orlando, Fla., Las Vegas, Chicago and San Antonio. 

    Austin ranked No. 5 on the list, and Dallas No. 15. Plano and Fort Worth also made the top 50. 

    MAR
    23
    Houston No. 1 in new job growth last year
    Date: Friday, March 23, 2012, 2:25pm CDT

    Houston topped the list of cities with the most job growth last year and Texas ranked No. 4 on the state list, a new study says.

    Based on the latest job figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics , Houston added 94,700 nonagricultural jobs between January 2011 and January 2012, an increase of 3.75 percent, a study from the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University said. That ranks it No. 1 among metropolitan markets with a workforce of 1 million or more people.

    “As far as the cities, Houston and Dallas (No. 4) have fared especially well, since they’re located in Texas, a state that has stayed ahead of most throughout the recession and recovery,” Research Professor Lee McPheters, director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at the W. P. Carey School of Business, said in a statement.

    Texas added 262,100 jobs, a 2.5 percent increase, ranking it No. 4 among the states. Some states with much smaller workforces, such as North Dakota (No. 1), added significantly fewer jobs, but they increased by larger percentages, McPheters said.

    “One common theme among those doing well on the list is the use of natural resources at a time of high energy prices," McPheters added. "North Dakota, Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma are all oil-producing states, and West Virginia and Utah mine coal. North Dakota has ranked first for 33 consecutive months.”

    Overall the U.S. added 1.986 million jobs, a 1.5 percent increase.

    MAR
    22

    Local housing market ratchets up

    (AP)

    Houston-area home sales were up for the ninth straight month in February and inventory fell to its lowest level in more than three years, the Houston Association of Realtors said today in a monthly report.

    Real estate agents sold 3,832 homes last month. That’s up 16.9 percent over February 2011, according to the association, which tracks homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service.

    Houston’s housing rebound is largely related to the area’s economy.

    Employers created 94,700 jobs from January 2011 to January 2012, a 3.7 percent gain, according to the latest figures from the Texas Workforce Commission. Much of the gains came from temporary staffing, energy exploration and manufacturing.

    “It stands to reason that with new jobs being filled, these employees and their families will need housing,” Wayne Stroman, chairman of the realty association, said in a news release.

    February’s single-family home median price — the figure at which half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less — dipped 0.7 percent year-over-year to $149,900.

    Other highlights from the report:

    * Distressed properties are still a large component of the local market. Foreclosure property sales were up 21.1 percent year-over-year and  comprised 23.2 percent of all property sales in February.

    * Month-end pending sales for February totaled 3,445. That is up 13.5 percent from last year and suggests another month of positive sales when the March housing data are tallied.

    * The number of available properties, or active listings, at the end of February declined 15.3 percent from February 2011 to 42,206.

    * The inventory of single-family homes dropped to its lowest level since December 2008 — 5.6 months, compared to 7.3 months a year earlier. That means selling all the single-family homes on the market would take 5.6 months to complete based on the past year’s sales activity.

    * It’s still a good time for landlords. Demand for single-family rentals were up 21.1 percent in February compared to 2011, and townhouse/condominium rentals climbed 19.6 percent.

    FEB
    21

    In the mood to buy: Homes sales jump for eighth straight month and spring should be even better

     
    02.21.12 02:54 pm

    Houston's real estate market maintained the revival momentum in January, as the city registered the eighth consecutive month of increased home sales.

    Home sales were up 9.2 percent in January, compared to January of 2011, according to the Houston Association of Realtors.

    Led by the nation’s strongest  job growth and a solid energy industry,  Houston housing has been on a roll since last summer.

     “People are in the buying mood more than they’ve been in a long time,” Crawford said. 

    Upbeat economic news and predictions that home prices will rise in 2012 have boosted home buyer’s confidence, said Evert Crawford, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston. “People are in the buying mood more than they’ve been in a long time,” Crawford said.

    The inventory of homes for sale has been dropping steadily, boosting the overall health of the market. The inventory of available properties, or active listings, at the end of January declined 15.1 percent from January 2011 to 42,067, the Realtors association reported. It is the lowest inventory since December 2009.

    The positive January report indicates that Houston’s market has recovered from the decline that began about three years ago. Houston realty suffered some hard knocks, but it fared much better than some markets, such as California, Florida and Arizona where foreclosures reached epidemic levels and home prices fell by as much as 50 percent.

    The HAR reported that current levels of pending sales are up 6 percent over this time last year. Importantly, this points to a positive beginning to the spring home buying season, when home buying is at its peak.

    The home buying spree in January was spread across all price levels, except for the upper end of the market. The sale of upscale homes priced over $500,000 declined 2.1 percent in January, compared to January of 2011.

    FEB
    20

    Job Land: Houston ranked the most prosperous city in America by a wide margin

     
    02.20.12 11:55 am

    Proud to be a Texan? If you want a job, you probably are.

    More than 100,000 new jobs were created in Houston since the recession, making it the most prosperous city in the country according to a recent Business Journals study. New Orleans, Austin, Dallas and San Antonio rounded out a Texas-filled top five.

     Only 13 major cities managed to add jobs during this time period — and no other city came close to Houston's six-figure add.  

    Over a span of five years from 2006 to 2011, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics compiled the numbers to estimate the employment levels after the impact of the recession. An estimated 109,700 jobs were created in Houston, the most in the country. Only 13 major cities managed to add jobs during this time period — and no other city came close to Houston's six-figure add.

    New Orleans ranked No. 2 by adding 39,400 jobs, Austin added 37,900, Dallas came in fourth with 36,000 and San Antonio brought in 25,200 additional jobs.

    Texas doesn't just dominate the Top 5 either. McAllen ranks sixth with 14,000 new jobs and El Paso comes in at No. 8 with 8,000 jobs.

    JAN
    18
    Houston ranks as North America’s fastest-growing metro area
    Date: Wednesday, January 18, 2012, 6:32am CST

    Houston not only beat every other large metropolitan area in the U.S. in terms of the world’s fastest-growing economies, but it also topped all other large metropolitan areas in the eastern hemisphere, according to a report from the Brookings Institution released on Wednesday.

    Houston ranked No. 19 on Brooking’s Global MetroMonitor report, which analyzed large metropolitan areas’ gross domestic product, employment, income and population rates.

    Although Houston fared well — the report found income increased 5.5 percent and employment increased 2.5 percent since 2010— almost all other North American markets fell in the rankings.

    This is part of a worldwide trend, as more market growth shifts to developing economies in Asia and Eastern Europe, the report found. Surprisingly, half of the 40 weakest metropolitan markets were either in the U.S. or the U.K.

    Dallas was the only other U.S. market to get a strong economic growth ranking at No. 36.

    The other markets that beat Houston were mainly in China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which all had multiple cities in the top 10 ranks.

    Click here to see an interactive map of the metropolitan areas’ economic performance.

    Click here to view the full report.

    DEC
    22

     

    Texas’ population grew 2.1 percent over past year

    Date: Wednesday, December 21, 2011, 3:24pm CST - Last Modified: Wednesday, December 21, 2011, 7:42pm CST
     
    Texas

    Texas' population is on the upswing.

    Texas gained more residents than any other state between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2011, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau population estimates for the states and Puerto Rico.

    Texas added 529,000 residents to give it the No. 1 spot. The state’s population grew 2.1 percent. Following the Lone Star State is California with 438,000 residents; Florida with 256,000 residents; Georgia with 128,000 residents; and North Carolina with 121,000 residents. Combined, these five states accounted for slightly more than half of the nation’s total population growth.

    “These are the first set of Census Bureau population estimates to be published since the official 2010 Census state population counts were released a year ago,” says Census Bureau Director Robert Groves. “Our nation is constantly changing and these estimates provide us with our first measure of how much each state has grown or declined in total population since Census Day 2010.”

    The U.S. as a whole saw its population increase by 2.8 million people over the 15-month period. Currently, there are 311.6 million people living in America. However, the national growth rate of 0.92 percent between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2011 was the lowest since the mid-1940s.

    “The nation’s overall growth rate is now at its lowest point since before the baby boom,” Groves says.

    California is still the most populous state with a population of 37.7 million. Texas has 25.7 million. New York has 19.5 million. Florida has 19.1 million and Illinois has 12.9 million.

    The Census Bureau develops state population estimates by measuring population change since the most recent census.

     
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