Sarah Hanif

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Keller Williams Realty Southwest
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2020 Recession Forecast

May 2nd, 2020

Weekly Unemployment, higher than ever recorded.

Forecasted by Goldman Sacs.

Q2 Forecast would be the largest decline of all time. We've never had such a huge decline in the history of America. 

Goldman Sacs has forecasted for the recession to be over in July and head towards a recovery.

**Taking a look at Q1, the numbers were actually half as bad as projected by Goldman. Our GDP was -4.8% for Q1.

1/5 restaurants are projected to never open again. Support your local businesses!

Before Covid-19, according to the FIT fiscal, TX held 4th best job growth in the country!

We will see lots of Mergers and Massive Bankruptcies in Oil & Gas sector. 

We have the lowest interest rates in Texas. You could possibly get 2.65% on a 30 year. Look into refinancing now. Buy a home now. The interest rates will help the recovery and home sales this year. We are borrowing money for free because of inflation. 

Commercial Real Estate- Interest rates are great, loans are still being offered. In 2008 Recession commercial went down because money was not being offered to purchase commercial properties. 

Although 2020 will be down in terms of sales, in 2021 we should see a rise in sales to help offset 2020. Interest rates will help.

More homes have been sold in March than anytime in history. We set a record. In the last 12 months more homes have been sold then in any 12 month period in history. Before covid-19, Million dollar home sales hit a record as well. 

Our listings are currently down 33%.

Basically forecasted a short, deep recession. Record low rates will help us come out. Cheap energy will help the country come out. We entered the downturn with best wage growth in 10 years. We will switch our manufacturing to the US which will bring many more jobs. 

Title companies are now doing drive through car closings. 

These numbers are constantly changing. Goldman is updating their forecast every time they get new numbers. As you know, this is a forecast based on the data we currently have. 

credit: Ted C. Jones- Chief Economist for Stewart Title 

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Disclaimer : The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Houston Association of REALTORS®

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