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Brian Simpson

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RE/MAX Elite Properties
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What Does the Rest of the Year Hold for Home Prices?

August 18th, 2022



What

Whether youre a potential homebuyer, seller, or both, you probably want to know: will home prices fall this year? Lets break down whats happening with home prices, where experts say theyre headed, and why this matters for your homeownership goals.

Last Years Rapid Home Price Growth Wasnt the Norm

In 2021, home prices appreciated quickly. One reason why is that record-low mortgage rates motivated more buyers to enter the market.As a result, there were more people looking to make a purchase than there were homes available for sale. That led to competitive bidding wars which drove prices up. CoreLogic helps explain how unusual last years appreciation was:

Price appreciation averaged 15% for the full year of 2021, up from the 2020 full year average of 6%.

In other words, the pace of appreciation in 2021 far surpassed the 6% the market saw in 2020. And even that appreciation was greater than the pre-pandemic norm which was typically around 3.8%. This goes to show, 2021 was an anomaly in the housing market spurred by more buyers than homes for sale.

Home Price Appreciation Moderates Today

This year, home price appreciation is slowing (or decelerating) from the feverish pace the market saw over the past two years. According to the latest forecasts, experts say on average, nationwide, prices will still appreciate by roughly 10% in 2022 (see graph below):

What

Why do all of these experts agree prices will continue to rise? Its simple. Even though housing supply is growing today, its still low overall thanks to several factors, including a long period of underbuilding homes. And experts say thats going to help keep upward pressure on home prices this year. Additionally, since mortgage rates are higher this year than they were last year, buyer demand has slowed.

As the market undergoes this change, its true price appreciation this year wont match the feverish pace in 2021. But the rapid appreciation the market saw last year wasnt sustainable anyway.

What Does That Mean for You?

Today, the market is beginning to move back toward pre-pandemic levels. But even the forecast for 10% home price growth in 2022 is well beyond the 3.8% thats more typical for a normal market.

So, despite what you may have heard, experts say home prices wont fall in most markets.Theyll just appreciate more moderately.

If youre worried the house youre trying to sell or the home you want to buy will decrease in value, you should know experts arent calling for depreciation in most markets, just deceleration. That means your home should still grow in value, just not as fast as it did last year.

Bottom Line

If youre thinking of making a move, you shouldnt wait for prices to fall. Experts say nationally, prices will continue to appreciate this year, just at a more moderate pace. When youre ready to begin the process of buying or selling, lets connect so you have a local market expert on your side each step of the way.


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Disclaimer : The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Houston Association of REALTORS®

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